FULL DISCLOSURE: This is unsubstantiated, but it's based on a lot of empirical evidence and pretty ample data analysis.
I have a good idea why QBs throw more INTs in 0.4.5 than they ever did in 0.4.x. It's based on two related things: Overuse and Fatigue Clock.
Some notes first. My offensive game plan is built on these principles:
1) 70-80 plays per game (usually this ends up being a 30:40 or 30:50 run:pass split)
2) 5-8 yards per play
3) 35-40 mins possession time
What I find is that my QBs start out really hot against most defenses and it's not unusual for me to go into halftime with a QB completing north of 80% for 100-150 yards.
In the second half, my QBs fade and start throwing more interceptions. And this has bothered me, but I should have realized what was going on before now.
Here's how the code works:
1) After a defense sees a play more than three times two things happen: (A) they key the play correctly and (B) they get a bonus against the play. The bonus always applies. The only time you see the overuse show up in PbP text is when the outcome is dictated by the bonus. But the bonus is always there.
2) QBs have a fatigue clock of 40-50 passes per game. At 50 passes, their passing ability is strongly adversely affected by their fatigue level.
3) The play matrix causes plays to be selected “randomly”, which results in some plays being called 5-10 times and other plays 0 times instead of getting an even distribution of plays.
This leads my team into a situation where I'm going to throw more INTs. Because I'm running more plays than most teams, and because the play matrix is calling those plays more than 3 times a game, I'm getting overuse penalties by halftime even if they are not showing up in the text. Also, because I'm running more plays than most teams, my QB is hitting the fatigue wall faster, which is causes a nasty feedback loop.
I have some ideas of how to fix this, but I wanted to share this observation since others have been asking.
