So is that dice roll for every step of the play call by the one with highest chance?

Say I have
50 short pass
40 long pass
30 medium pass
20 inside run
10 outside run

So 50% short pass = false

Leaving
40% lp
30 mp
20 ir
10 or

40% long pass = false or is it doubled making 80% long pass chance?

Leaving
30 mp
20 ir
10 or

What we're really saying is the *ratio* is what counts. You're making it harder than it really is.
The matrix really only cares about the first part of the scenario. All the numbers add up to 150.
So you have a 33% chance of running a short pass: 50/150 = 33%
You have a 27% of running a long pass: 40/150 = 27%
And you have a 40% chance of running anything else: 60/150 = 40%

If we apply the logic to Seth's original scenario:

50 Short Pass
15 Inside Run
15 Outside Run
10 Medium Pass
10 Long Pass

All those numbers add up to 100.

We have a 50% chance of passing short: 50/100 = 50%
We have a 30% chance of running: 30/100 = 30%
And we have a 20% chance of passing medium or long: 20/100 = 20%

So we really have a 30% chance of running and a 70% chance of passing. Because the play matrix is imbalanced, your numbers also need to be imbalanced to have a balanced offense. The sliders need to add up to the *ratio* you really want.

50 = P + P/3 + P/4
50 = 12P + 4P/12 + 3P/12
50 = 19P/12
600 = 19P
31.5 = P

SP = 32
MP = 11
LP = 8
IR/OR = 24

If you want a different ratio for Inside vs Outside running, then adjust as necessary.

To be fair, I'd rather see a 4:1 Short:Medium and 8:1 Short:Medium ratio. (For full disclosure, this is close to my matrix.)
50 = P + P/4 + P/8
50 = 8P/8 + 2P/8 + P/8
50 = 11P/8
400 = 11P
36.4 = P

SP = 36
MP = 9
LP = 4-5
IR/OR = 24-25

50:50 ratios are pretty easy. If you want 70:30 or 60:40, it gets a bit wonkier.

They key difference here is ratio and chance. (FYI, I was using that as an example of how the matrix is seductively simple.) You have a 30% chance of running, and over a long enough time, that may end up being close to a 7:3 ratio, but it may not.

If you want to maintain a strict ratio (I want to pass X more times than run for Y play type), then you have to make sure the ratio holds down through your play selection. Which is why you end up getting a much more unbalanced approach.

You can also end up with some wonky games like these (I was Denver):

https://mfn19.myfootballnow.com/box/7432
https://mfn19.myfootballnow.com/box/7447
https://mfn19.myfootballnow.com/box/7475

Some of the results here are caused by different rules that I use, but I was using a stricter 7:3 ratio for at least first down in them.

I've backed this down a bit.

[Also, the fatigue wall for QBs seems to be 50 passes.]

Thanks!

I'm thinking I can make a spreadsheet to help me set my sliders right based on this. :)

What I asked should look more like your settings, just with a little more medium, little less long.