I’d buy that if I hadn’t seen the garbage performance turn into beauty with a new team. I rather keep him in his filth, than let him flourish with another team. Lol

I'm going to reiterate my first point above. The key thing to interceptions is defensive play vs offensive play.

If the defense has the right call against your offense, the chances of INTs go up. It's a pretty strong statistical correlation regardless of pressure applied.

This gets compounded over the course of a game. If you are calling the same offensive play a lot, the chances of the defense calling the play that can beat it a lot increases since most owners don't vary their defensive play calls per set much during a game.

Then, again, Willis is frustrating the **** out of me this year with 5 in one game and at least 1 in every other game.

I get that and I go back and look for the play call matchup. Unfortunately for me, I haven’t been able to see the correlation but then again, I’m kinda slow. I guess I need to go back and see the defense. I have seen some of the flat zones be successful.

This guy:
https://arena.myfootballnow.com/player/2960

used to give me fits until I turned him loose and let him become somebody else's problem. If somebody else could make him a star, more power to them. It turns out that he was really holding me back. From my experience, sometimes the quarterback *himself* is the problem. It might be an easy thing to see if the cause is something close at hand. If he can move on and flourish elsewhere, so be it. YMMV, of course.

I have a lot more data that I've dug through. I also don't understand why certain defenses work against certain plays and others do not.

Just like I'm not sure how you can have a WR lead a league in INTs by playing the CB1 and 2 in the Nickel 2 Deep, but I've seen that happen too.

I dont know how this would apply here, but the system is complex.....this is how it dropped....let alone tipped then intercepted. As tips were in the game but i dont notice too many of them in 4.5 ........its a catch/drop/kncockdown or int

Re: Drops and Passes behind the LOS
By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
9/20/2013 1:46 pm
The passes behind the LOS is driving me crazy too. I keep thinking it's ultra restrictive and then a QB starts throwing it again. You might be right, I may just need to completely eliminate passes to a receiver behind the LOS, period, until I start building the screen pass logic.

The drops are being counted if the ball is within the catchability of a player, but here's the current weight of each factor in determining whether a pass is dropped or not:

60% base chance of a completion
2% for above his head - higher above the head, the less lower this value. (Ball must be within a catchable height to get here)
2% for how close the ball is to the player - further away reduces this value.
20% - pass catching bar
3% - experience/fatigue
2% - if the ball is behind the WR there is a 2% penalty
11% - coverage - this is a calculation based on the number of defenders right on the WR and how our courage stacks up against their punish receiver skills.

So, a 100 pass catching bar gives you an 80% chance base, the other 20% are influenced by other factors. The most likely reason for high pass catching bars to have drops is probably the coverage around him

The players are independent of each other and the ball as well, so nothing is black and white

Interceptions are seperate from all this.....somewhere in there, if the defenders can catch it the interception roll is made


Re: Dropped Passes
By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
2/26/2014 9:57 pm
When the ball is thrown from the quarterback, the optimal launch vector is determined, and then error is added to it based on the QB's accuracy. The ball is then launched, and the receiver adjusts to get to the optimal receiving location based on the flight path of the ball. Once the receiver reaches his closest point to the ball, if the ball is outside of his arm's length or too high then he is unable to catch it, so he does not get a drop stat. If the ball is within his arm's length, he gets a probability factor of whether or not the catch is made. This takes into consideration his pass catching ability, the distance away from him that the ball is, the altitude of the ball, whether the ball is behind him vs. in front of him (behind him reduces his probability of making the catch), and also the proximity of the defenders and their velocity vectors (if he's about to get a head-on collision, he is more likely to drop the ball, driven by his courage bar and the defender's Punish Receiver bar). If the defender has a strong enough influence in the drop, then instead of a drop stat the defender gets a knock-down stat

Re: Finally some game engine updates! Passing game has been revisited
By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
5/25/2016 9:30 am
Here are the factors that influence QB accuracy:

1) their accuracy rating (duh)
2) experience and fatigue
3) if the QB is moving, their scramble skill (the faster they are moving, the more their scramble skill comes into play)
4) the distance the ball is being thrown - further distances have less accuracy. This is the only tweak I made recently, previously there was no distance penalty for passes shorter than 15 yards, I changed that because too many bad QB's were playing like superstars with the short passing game. It's possible this still needs to be tweaked.
5) Pressure from the defensive line

So you can't completely evaluate everything by the accuracy rating, if your QB is under a lot of pressure or is throwing longer passes it's going to show up in his accuracy. I'd be interested to see if you evaluate the performance with those additional factors in mind and still think the scales seemed tilted too much.

As for the defensive backs, their man-to-man coverage simply means how close they are able to stay with the WRs. But they must also have the speed to do it as well, if the WR is outrunning them then they won't be in a position to knock the ball down. That's a measure of their speed, acceleration, and weight.

Penalties haven't changed at all, if you're seeing an uptick in them the factors in that are primarily discipline with a lesser influence by fatigue and experience


heres more on general accuracy...which i think drives interceptions

I think this part could use some work.... probably additional reason wr get alot of picks, but experience matters

Re: Finally some game engine updates! Passing game has been revisited
By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
5/25/2016 11:42 am
In the case of a WR being blanketed by the CB, the QB will either decide he is too well-covered or will try to throw the ball to a place that the CB cannot get to and the WR has the greatest chance to catch it. When the ball is thrown, the CB makes a decision whether he will attempt to knock the ball down, go for the INT, or realize he can't get there in time and try to make the tackle. If he chooses to try to make an INT, he is less likely to knock the ball down, and if he is unsuccessful at getting the ball in this case, the WR may have a better shot at making the catch. The punish receiver/courage attributes also come into play with the WR catchability.

A more experienced CB will be less likely to try to make an INT if it is an extremely close call than one who is less experienced, but also a less experienced CB will be more likely to let the WR catch the ball than try to make a play on it. It's complicated, I know ... and hard to really explain ... but that's kind of a basic overview of how it works.

I'm surprised nobody has touched on Bump & Run as a factor. I've seen quite a few INTs where the defender in man coverage bumps the WR, keeping him away from the reception area, and a second defender (or three) accelerates in (unrealistically fast) for the pick. Combined with the Catching and Courage logic outlined above ... it helps explain why WRs playing as DBs are getting so many.